Robert here. As promised, in this post we will provide some basic evidence of encouraging signs that China’s economy could recover in ’09.
As mentioned in previous AC posts and comments, we are, naturally, in frequent conversations with law firm partners and other business leaders in Asia, and the prevailing opinion, even from the most conservative and pessimistic, is that the major law firm deal flow in China could recover somewhat, if not yet to previous recent boom levels, by second half 2009 and that 2010 will likely be a good year. Keep in mind that the downturn hit China about one year after the US markets and it will likely recover well ahead of the US markets.
The Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Limited, Dr. Stephen Roach, has predicted recently that China’s economy will recover by the second half of 2009. In contrast, Roach predicts that the U.S. is only 20% through its deleveraging cycle and it will be a number of years before adjustments are complete. Merrill Lynch & Co., Hong Kong, economist Lu Ting: “China looks set to be the first major economy to recover from the current global meltdown.”
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